Charles Draper Canham, Jonathan J. Cole, William K. Lauenroth. Models in Ecosystem Science. Princeton University Press. 2003.
There is a need to explore the problem of predicting the impact that fracking will have on ground water. See chapter: “Philosophical Issues in Model Assessment” (N. Oreskes & K. Belitz).
Link to full-text PDF (492kb)
The authors explore how hydrologists judge the relative strengths of different models and test models to use in predicting long-term ecological disaster.
It is widely acknowledged that all scientific knowledge is provisional. It has to be. If scientific enquiry is a process of discovery of new knowledge and refutation of old mistakes, then the knowledge we have at any given moment must be provisional. For science to advance, we must be critical of existing knowledge. Therefore all scientific knowledge is, in some sense, uncertain, and the issues of uncertainty inherent in model validation are not unique to modelling. However, there are particular aspects of numerical simulation models that exacerbate the problem of uncertainty to a degree that may be substantially greater than in some forms of scientific endeavour. These features are non-uniqueness, the problem of temporal and spatial divergence, and the subjectivity of model assessment.
Oreskes, Naomi, and Kenneth Belitz. “Philosophical issues in model assessment.” Model validation: Perspectives in hydrological science 23 (2001): 23-41. Link to full-text PDF (492kb)
From the Back Cover
Model validation is a fundamental issue in modern hydrological science where increased demands for prediction and process understanding has been driven by advances in numerical modelling and environmental legislation.
Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science is the first book to deal with this subject in hydrology and environmental science, as well as in other fields.
Model Validation brings together philosophers, modellers and legal experts to comment on model validation issues and gives an evaluation of how we interpret scientific evidence derived from numerical models.
This book shows how much quantitative and testable issues underpin research across the discipline of hydrological science, and also in legal and philosophical frameworks, by addressing major questions concerning acceptable levels of proof in the area.
See: Expert Testimony on Hydraulic Fracturing Impacts
See: Coalbed Methane Development: The Costs and Benefits of an Emerging Energy Resource
See: This Website is a Crash Course In Fracking
